BREAKING: Trump Just Ordered MASSIVE Rate Cuts In 2025 – Huge Pivot Ahead!
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THE FEDERAL RESERVE:
Their priority, over anything else, is to make sure that the United States has a strong labor market, maintains maximum levels of employment, and operates in such a way that keeps pricing stable. What makes this unique is that The Federal Reserve is an INDEPENDENT agency, meaning they’re not at the whims of political pressure when making policy decisions. Their decisions do not need approval from anyone in Congress.
THE INTEREST RATE DEBATE:
Over the last 5 years, the United States has spent (and borrowed) an unsustainable amount of money. When interest rates are near 0%, making those payments is easy. But, when interest rates rise to recent record highs, all of a sudden it becomes quite expensive to maintain.
LOWERING RATES:
-Wholesale Inflation Is Going Down
This is what’s known as “The Producer Price Index,” or what businesses pay for the cost of materials, that eventually gets passed on to the consumer. Llast month – there was no increase, whatsoever, suggesting that inflation isn’t getting worse in spite of tariff concerns.
-Rate Cuts Would Save The Government Almost $1 Trillion Per Year
In this case, our interest rates have a direct impact on what we pay for the national debt – so, lower rates would equate to a substantial savings.
-For the last year – inflation has pretty much bottomed out.
Inflation has remained below 3% for the last 12 months. Even though we’ve seen a bit of an increase recently, in the big picture, it’s really not that bad.
RAISING RATES:
-Inflation Is Increasing Again
Inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month, which – if that continues – would put inflation back above 3%.
-The Labor Market Is Still REALLY Strong
Typically, the Federal Reserve lowers rates in response to a spike in unemployment, but that’s currently near a record low.
-Tariff Concerns.
Jerome Powell said it himself: they would have cut rates, but tariff uncertainty is putting them on edge.
-Political Pressures Don’t Seem To Work On Jerome Powell.
Trump tried a similar strategy back in 2018, and Jerome Powell never budged.
FIRING JEROME POWELL:
By law, a President has the right to remove the Federal Reserve Board Members “For Cause,” which is generally interpreted as an inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance. HOWEVER, the law is unclear whether “For Cause” firings apply to the chair of the Federal Reserve. From Powell’s perspective, he’s openly said that Trump is not permitted to fire him “under law,” and – more recently, The Supreme Court said: “the relationship between the president and the Federal Reserve is different from that of other independent agencies, signaling that Chair Jerome Powell is legally protected from being removed by President Donald Trump.”
FORCED RESIGNATION:
In theory, Trump could make Jerome Powell’s life so difficult that he voluntarily gives up his position, in favor or someone else that Trump appoints. This is why Trump is beginning to accuse Jerome Powell of “mismanaging the U.S. central bank’s $2.5 billion renovation project."
MARKET SELLOFF:
It’s largely believed that if the Federal Reserve gives the appearance of losing their independence, it would undermine America’s financial markets, it would cause treasury rates to spike back up, and the stock market would begin to sell off from a unprecedented uncertainty.
In this case, if the Federal Reserve is seen as “politicized,” investors will demand a higher risk premium on US Treasuries (after all, the United States Federal Reserve will no longer be seen as an independent entity, and lowering interest rates would undermine the long term safety of the market). Not to mention, if there’s too much “easy money,” the dollar would further be devalued, leading to a sell off of US Currency.
Personally, I think it’s obvious that Trump is the type of person to openly test the waters by throwing out statements – seeing how the market reacts – and then making a decision from there.
00:00- Intro
01:18 – Raising vs Lowering Rates
06:12 – Protect Your Information
08:00 – Firing Jerome Powell
09:14 – Powell Resigning
10:53 – Market Selloff
12:12 – What Will Likely Happen
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Thanks for the consistent clear breakdowns. This is refreshing to see just objective facts for a bit.
You got it!
Nobody breaks it down like Graham it’s like getting a finance degree for free. Been applying his advice and tracking my progress publicly… it’s wild how fast things shift when you commit.
Ah thanks!!
Hell yea brother
Lowering interest rates is something you don’t stimulate growth, the opposite of what you should do when dealing with inflation. The Tariff policy and implementation is adding to inflation and preventing the lowering of rates. You can’t have it both ways.
Exactly
Yet history shows the danger of keeping them elevated too long as we can see the 3 crashes that were caused by it.
The problem is small cap and startups suffer
Isn’t lower interest rates the reason why housing prices went so high? The rich and mega corporations used the interest rates to buy up property.
there is no inflation lmaoooo
I understand bracing for tariffs impact, however, it hasn’t been as dramatic as they have expected.
So trump is just rage baiting everyone
Basically, seems like he’s testing waters to see what people would / would not support.
@GrahamStephan we elect politicians who should be looking out for our best interest.
@@GrahamStephan I thought he could fire the FED chair, but he would have to show some kind of cause it was legitimate.
Trump literally appointed Powell in his first term
That doesn’t mean he’s still effective….
Tfw the person you hired is underperforming so fire them and claim someone else hired them
@@drich8806neither is the pdf in chief
Yes, Trump appointed Powell but Trump is now saying that Biden appointed him!
@@beachcrowFed chair is only a 4 year term. Biden reappointed Powell. Now you know.
The interest rate being around 4% is not high. In the event rates are cut we will have a roaring economy and roaring inflation followed by an epic crash…same story repeats itself every time.
Exactly. People just got used to very cheap money. Those days are gone for now.
Rates were sky high in the 80s yet the economy grew.
We slashed taxes from 70% in the top tax bracket. It’s not the same thing. The 80s are gone and Regan’s ideas didn’t work. The only thing trickling down is piss
@@rn87mom94 The US can’t afford expensive money. We spend $1T a year on interest, if rates matched in the 80’s the entire tax revenue for the year would go to just interest.
Spending before was never like it is now
Trump need to refinance around 5 trillion debt, he need to pay out this summer. Anything more than 0-2% interest rate collapses US permanently.
He is trying to take the heat off the LIST. Release the list(unaltered) and we’ll let all the creeps fall which will take care of Trumpy
Even Mahatma Gandhi wont be good enough for you. Is there no distraction or deflection in this great concern?
The list is way bigger than Trump dum dum
Yep Biden, Obama, clinton and Trump will all be taken down by the list. Release it!
I disagree. Fix the economy first and make our lives liveable. Fxxk that list. It’s never coming out. Too many people on it.
Yes release the list! Obama, Biden, clinton and Trump all included
5:22 Unemployment isn’t actually as low as it appears. There is no hiring, thus frustrated job seekers are not counted in the numbers. Layoffs are coming as the labor market further weakens. Consumer spending is down as people brace for this. Corps have essentially eaten or deferred tariff costs due to weak demand, but they won’t for long. They’ll either pass on the cost and watch sales fall, or, more likely, lay off workers to save money.
correct, it just reports people activly looking for work that are currently unemployed.
it doesnt represent people that are underemployed, people working a minimum wage job while they are trying to get hired in their field, it doesnt show people that have given up looking…it cretainly does not represent the correct ammount of people that are employed in a full time job earning a living wage. the number is really a joke
@@EdLee-r6kthe most not funny joke ever
Yeah if you include under-employment we’re over 20% unemployed
Frankly we might be close to 20% just plain not working.
Trumplioni or the people under him thinks applying work requirements for SNAP and Medicaid more broadly will make people work more… But the work that pays just isn’t there.
20% is ridiculous@@priestesslucy
Jerome Powell has balls to protect the US Dollar against corrupt politicians. Wish him the best.
we’ll see what happens!
Double-digit rates or right into hyperinflation we go
Trump will just appoint a puppet next year and re-rees will still cry about DEI while the guy he picks will likely be half as qualified as Powell.
Brother the US dollar has had 0 protection in decades
Didn’t Jerome Powell also cut interest rates multiple times before Biden’s term ended with false job growth reports? Where they falsified an additional 400,000 jobs that never existed, just to make the economy look good and lower interests?
The market would skyrocket if Jerome is fired
Momentarily before inflation starts to skyrocket again. But it end there’s no saving the dollar unless of course they stop printing it and get debt under control and start paying it down.
Wages aren’t going as expected. A recession is needed to heal from greed
your imitation of Jerome Powell at 5:55 was SPOT ON
Epstein Files. Now.
Who cares about Epstein files when sleepy Jo could have released them
Hesonitwhatareyougunnadoaboutit
The issue isn’t the rate, it’s the TRILLION dollars of interest we pay each year on the debt.
We’re far to gone at this point
What about the trillions giving tax cuts to the rich? We could use that money towards the debt . Powell should leave rates as they are…
@@robertbrown1021bad idea
@brady-bp2vtGood Idea! Trump bad idea to give tax cuts to the rich.
The rate DIRECTLY DICTATES what we pay…
Problem is the fed can’t lower the rate. Nobody is buying our debt anymore.
Great video Graham! You always do a terrific job of breaking things down! I respect the time you put into your videos.
The president cannot fire the fed chair don’t be a moron
You give Trump too much credit for having a “strategy”
Graham and a coin toss are equally correct on the future of the stock market.
Trump’s understanding of economies and markets is almost zero. He gives us examples almost every day.