The Banking Crisis Just Got Worse (Defaults Are Rising)
Apply for the Gemini Credit Card: – Enjoy! Let's discuss the regional banking crisis, why commercial real estate loans are losing money, and how this impacts the rest of the market – Thanks for watching! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan
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UNREALIZED LOSSES BACK ON THE TABLE
Banks are once again sitting on massive unrealized losses, but this time it’s not just from treasuries, it’s from commercial real estate loans that are rapidly losing value as rates stay high.
REGIONAL BANKS HOLD THE RISK
Around 80% of commercial real estate loans are held by smaller regional banks, many with nearly half their assets tied to properties that may no longer be worth what was loaned.
$2.2 TRILLION REFINANCE CLIFF IS COMING
Between now and 2027, trillions in commercial real estate loans will reset at much higher interest rates, which could trigger widespread defaults if values keep falling.
EARLY SIGNS ARE ALREADY SHOWING
Zions Bank took a $50M loss due to fraud, Western Alliance is facing lawsuits, and even investment firms like Jeffries are warning of unexpected hits, sparking fresh banking panic.
BIG BANKS VS SMALL BANKS REALITY CHECK
Large banks like Chase and Bank of America are stress-tested and diversified. Smaller banks are not, so they’re the ones most exposed to this new wave of risk.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU
This isn’t a full banking collapse scenario, but it is a clear warning: diversify your cash, stay under FDIC limits per bank, and don’t assume all institutions carry the same level of safety.
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Me: I’m homeless and can’t afford bread
Graham: Keep dollar cost averaging and buying into the market on a regular basis
HODL
Eat cake 😂 🍰
Snap, food banks, local churches.
And dollar cost averaging.
@PhoenixCrown😂
Start by trying to catch fish and sell 😂
I’m guessing the conclusion of the video will be “live below your means. Save and invest your money. Keep investing”
Always
@GrahamStephan😂
This is the way😅
Yep
his steadfast advice since 2019.
Haven’t watched the video, but just panicked and sold everything…
…
@GrahamStephandefinitely joking. 😊. Been following you since 2018 and have been in the market since then as well. Four market corrections total. What’s one more? 🎉
Same
Ha that’s nothing. I borrowed money to sell everything off
10:48 It’s not a typo. It’s a Classical reference to Aristotle translated as “One Swallow does not a Summer make”, which is why it’s in quotation marks.
…hmmm maybe I’m wrong!
Agreed, it’s not a typo
I think he said that for rage bait
Not a typo. It is a classic form.
I learned something new, thanks!
Great advice. I totally agree about not putting all eggs in one basket and not keeping money spread to minimize risk. Great video as usual.
Glad it was helpful!
“to big to fail” yet they all failed ….. And tax payers had to bail them out….. Not this time
Let them fail!
That’s not the American way. Gotta privatize the gains, and socialize the losses. That’s the American way.
Not happening. They will print their way out like in 2020. Inflation.
Thats why they are too big to fail, because they get bailed out.
This time it will not be a “bail out” it will be a “bail in” meaning the money just vanishes and a few banksters get away with gazillions
lmao you have no choice about whether they get bailed out or not
I’ve worked in the industry for years. the bigger the bldg, more empty is probably is. the big high rise bldgs are struggling. the small bldgs with a few doc offices or maybe 1000sqft or less suites, are doing great. very few vacancies.
I’ve been saying since the pandemic that commercial real estate was going to eventually crash and it’s clear to see why: more and more shopping online, more and more working from home, more and more folks streaming movies at home instead of going to the theatre, more and more people avoiding eating out. Malls as places to hang out like they were in the 90s just isn’t a thing anymore, and every cpa or bookkeeper that used to rent an office in a commercial office building now works from home, and so on. So now we are in a supply / demand situation where we have a lot more commercial real estate supply than there is demand, and for folks that bought those buildings to lease them out, that’s a big problem.
I wonder if eventually some of the commercial real estate will be converted to apartments to solve housing issues?
They do sometimes do that however it’s complicated because sometimes if they’re a skyscraper it’s not possible to convert him without extensive modifying of the structure. When it’s not a skyscraper it’s a lot less complicated but still you have to do a remodels which cost money and sometimes the landlord does not have any money because all their rent has dried up.
Plus AI will replace a lot of people in those big skyscrapers in every major city.
Never actually saw Bailey get her treat 😒
Stay tuned for the next one 😉
It’s sad that we don’t have institutions, banks, that actually serve us. We should always be allowed to take out all of our money at any time.
I started with $5k just last week in 2025, and now I’ve hit $87,590. I was having this exact conversation with my son the other night—generational wealth isn’t just about getting money. It’s about teaching everyone not only how to make it, but also how to maintain it. It does no good for me to provide for my family if they dont understand how to manage and sustain it. That’s why I really love this video.
How did you do it?
It’s Katherine Grace Wafel doing, she’s changed my life.
The first time we had tried, we invested €14,000 and after a week we received €50,230. That really helped us a lot to pay our bills.
I’m new at this, please how can I reach her?
I’m surprised that you just mentioned and recommended Katherine Wafel, I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
“does not a trend make” is a common saying in statistics/finance.
In every sector, pretty much
Not even just finance, thats common English… smh Graham
@darahs16I wouldn’t say common it’s for dramatic effect
I’m pretty sure he’s gaslighting for engagement.
Yep. Not a typo.
What does Nvidia, Microsoft, Blackrock all have in common? All 3 are BULLISH on Elon’s XA98B. Money is flying in
I cannot take anyone promoting Gemini credit cards seriously
Physical Gold and Silver is where I am at. They will print to save the banks, then they will print for UBI Stimi direct deposits. Every fiat currency out of the 600+ that ever existed failed, they all failed!
At this point physical gold is being controlled by Chinese market
Great video! I’m slightly less nervous… Btw, The sentence is not a typo; It’s called an anastrophe. “One swallow does not a summer make” is a popular example.
There are roughly 3000+ regional banks at risk while larger banks have been preparing themselves with capital to absorb said banks. This isn’t anything that’s suddenly jumped out overnight this issue has been well on radar for over a decade. Will they all go at once probably not; but enough rain drops do eventually form a river.
I’m so sick of this corruption and abuse. I’m not paying your bills!! I’m shorting all of you!!
Very good analysis. I’m just an amateur at this and I only know what I read and hear. Seems the A.I. potential bubble is a rather large concern (not to mention tariffs, consumer sentiment, etc.). I’m not as rosy on things as you, I think rather that we’re all rather f@&ked (!). 😳😂 (Small note, I think that article was using a form of Early Modern English (think Shakespeare) for stylistic purposes.)