WTF Just Happened To The Housing Market?!
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 – Buying A Home No Longer Makes Financial Sense
02:35 – Hidden Costs Of Owning A Home
06:25 – Maximize Your Spending
08:07 – Housing Affordability Is AWFUL
12:26 – Wallstreet Buying Homes
15:49 – When You SHOULD Buy A Home
WHY BUYING MADE SENSE IN THE PAST
Real estate historically built wealth through equity growth + low interest rates.
From 2017–2020, it was smart to buy and refinance into record-low rates.
HOW THE MARKET SHIFTED AFTER 2020
Builder delays + supply shortages = low inventory.
Cheap mortgages at 2–3% let buyers pay 30% more for the same home.
Bidding wars pushed prices to unsustainable highs.
WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY
Mortgage rates = highest since mid-2000s.
Monthly payments for a typical home have DOUBLED in 4 years.
Affordability is now at its worst level in history.
THE REAL COST OF OWNERSHIP
Median $410K home with 20% down + 6.2% loan:
~$19.5K interest per year
~$4.1K property taxes
~$2K insurance
~$4K maintenance
Plus the opportunity cost of your downpayment.
Total = ~$31,600/year just to “own” a home that might only appreciate $1,200.
WHY RENTING OFTEN WINS TODAY
Across all 50 states, buying costs ~50% more than renting.
Renters avoid 6% closing costs and huge monthly carrying costs.
Example: $500K home today = $3,000/mo. Neighbor who bought in 2020 pays $1,765 and can rent profitably at $2,000.
THE SUBSIDY PROBLEM
Just like student loans, government-backed mortgages artificially inflate prices.
Higher conforming loan limits = higher home prices.
CA’s $300M down payment assistance fund? Gone in 11 days — without lowering costs.
THE INVESTOR MYTH
Hedge funds and Wall Street aren’t buying all the homes.
Only ~11% of investors are big institutions — most are small landlords.
Investor purchases are actually declining because today’s prices aren’t profitable.
WHEN BUYING DOES MAKE SENSE
Stability – long term costs come down.
FINANCIAL REALITY:
Only worth it if you’ll stay 15+ years at today’s prices.
Otherwise, the math heavily favors renting (unless prices drop or rates fall substantially)
FUTURE OUTLOOK
Mortgage rates may not follow The Federal Reserve (they depend on long-term bond markets)
A “Silver Tsunami” of baby boomers selling by 2035 could add supply.
Until then, expect slow changes – but no "real estate collapse."
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In eastern Idaho during the pandemic, 🚲🏠 supply was effectively non-existent, and everyone wanted a 🚲🏠 due to the gyms closing and a flood of wealthy West Coast refugees. Both 🚲 🏠 supply surges in response. Pandemic ends. Supply of 🚲 🏠 is WAY over the capacity to sell. Half of the 🚲 shops in eastern Idaho went bankrupt in 2024. The housing market will follow. There are probably 30 new housing complexes with maybe 20% occupancy. A crash will happen. It will be painful. Mainland China has had a up to 95% drop in 🏠 values for example.
It depends, yea if you’re in one of these big municipalities where all the low fruit has been picked, get out. Same as the S&P the PE is off the chart, there’s a reason Buffet is sitting on 30% cash. You’re playing in someone else’s sandbox.
WTF Just Happened To this channel. it’s been circiling aroudn the toilet for ever now. Everyone can see this exept you.
Thank you for the sources
What calculator website did you use?
Owning a home was the best decision I ever made. I rented for years and hated dealing with the other tenants.
When did you buy? What is your interest rate?
Same. I know I could rent for less, no lies there. But I like having my own property that doesn’t share walls and has it’s own driveway.
Its definitely different for everyone. Which is why general advice is awful to listen to outside of you need to invest and save a portion of your money.
I did not buy a home and my investments have 3x since the drop in 2020. Thats just index funds l/ etf not counting individual stocks that are higher than that.
I still won’t buy a house but its specific to me.
I do not want to take care of a house and I love to travel so I tend to work online and time my leases so I leave, put everything in a storage for around $250 and travel to countries and rent furnished places long term.
I PERSONALLY believe the average person definitely SHOULD BUY a house specifically because everyone is stupid when it comes to money and buying a house is safe in most cases.
* I believe every 20 year old should find a way to buy a house and rent every room shoving as many people in the house to help pay it off if possible. Especially taking advantage of kids on student loans who dont understand money. House will be dirty, you will be angry, you will wish you lived alone but your 20s are a great time to suffer to get ahead. Once you get older you cant sleep on the floor with the lights on anymore 😅
If you bought before the pandemic then you are good.
@@Copious_Robyn I bought in 2020 when everybody was screaming and yelling the markets will crash cause of Covid. The complete opposite happened. Locked in at 2.8% and can rent out my house for below market rent while making profit.
I think part of the problem is insane house expectations. I have a 1200 sq foot. It fits my current family of three.
The only non negotiable is 2 toilets.
Even the 2 toilets are a weird American obsession.
Too small I currently live in a 1,000 sq ft home and I’m cramped I’ve explored purchasing homes and anything short of 2000 is small to me can’t do it. I’m not a rabbit in a box I need space
@@Itsallgoodtogo🇮🇳?
@@Auztin_SK8SIt’s funny that you wouldn’t live in a 1200 sq ft house when you’re currently in a 1000 sq ft one. I find that it’s more about the layout than pure square footage. Mine is just under 1500 sq ft, but I’ve seen smaller homes that are more functional and appear more spacious because they have good layouts. I also see larger homes with equally terrible layouts. Those wouldn’t be worth the upgrade.
@@Itsallgoodtogothe European mind could never understand living in a New York style type of home
All the YouTube real estate gurus that are telling you that renting is better than owning are the one’s who own rental properties.
In this video, a lot of data and analysis are presented to support the basic message (because many people responds to a resasonable presentation of facts and analyses). OTOH, a lot of people out there aren’t really interested in data and analyses, they prefer to go on “vibes.” Commenters, too. You’ll need to figure out which type you are.
They buy too rent not too live lot of those gurus rent houses
It looks like he’s specifying a home, and not rental properties
Do your own analysis.
Have they bought in the last few years? It made sense if it was before 2021 and it doesn’t make sense now
when everyone’s a renter, its a good business being an owner.
And Graham owns a good amount of real estate…
Very true….
not unless people are choosing to rent for cheaper with roommates in 1 unit instead of renting their own place and taking up 2 units
It depends. If you’re able to charge more than your mortgage, then sure, but at the margins most investor properties operate at, a few empty units could blow away any profit you might make.
Tell me you don’t own a house without telling me you don’t own a house
I don’t want an investment. I just want a place to raise a family.
This 1000x
💯
Facts.
rent?
a detailed that is overlooked
Until you stop thinking that a house is just an asset you won’t understand why most people want to buy one.
I think he’s trying to say if you’re not there financially you will lose more money owning a house right now
But renting long term isn’t good
If you thought more than 5 seconds ahead in life you’d understand that anything you own is an asset
@rodiculous9464 yeah my car is worth more than I bought of 4 years ago 😂
@@stevev1008exactly. Even food is going up
He says that in the video, did you watch it or just read the title?
It’s not a seller’s market nor a buyers market. It’s a politicians and corporate market.
Absolutely!😮
Im starting to look at labor unions too. Its all city land for city jobs.
It’s a corrupt market and has been for decades. But it’s trumps America now and it’s only going to get worse
P.e.
Jews
Don’t buy a home for profit buy a home to live in.
Live in the basement and take care of 3 old rich people for 7000 per person. My neighbor in Seattle does this. Easy permit and affordable insurance.
If you can afford to do so
@@charles96541I feel like its necessary to work towards it, I can’t fathom at the idea of renting forever. If you can sacrifice a few things off your life, eating out movies festivals etc… give them up temporarily whatever you need
Get another job even if it’s below your title. Is temporary. A long temporary but temporary time nonetheless.
But like Ramsey told you. Nobody’s retirement plan is to be a renter at the age of 80
Markets go up markets go down. Get in where you fit in.
This 🤙
“Time In” the market always beats “Timing” the market.
Best comment 🎉
Agreed but I think it’s just that most people find it unaffordable. A small percentage is thinking about how they would be underwater in the short term.
My rent went from $850 a month to $1500 a month between 2020 and 2023 because the complex I live in kept changing hands between hedge funds that would just repaint the buildings and jack up the rent.
My rent went from $2600 to $3800 in the same time period. Equity residential is one such truly horrific company.
Hedge funds are one of the biggest reasons in the decline of America
My rent went up 200 but my neighbor killed my dog
My mortgage payment went from $2600 to $3500 over a year because insurance rates went up!
I can promise u it’s not a hedge fund 😂
I just bought a house last month at 26 years old. Best feeling ever.
same, that’s a thoroughly good feeling indeed
I close Tuesday at 23 years old
Congratulations!
Congratulations!
You said house and not investment. Bravo, for knowing the difference!
When I bought my house in 2019, it would’ve cost me 25 BTC. If I sold it now, I would get 3 BTC. I should’ve bought the BTC. LOL!
but BTC was very high risk back then and a house a safe bet
@@guustvanuden2968 asymmetric upside with a long time horizon. It will keep outperforming as long as the governments keep pumping liquidity into the market… so forever..
I could have bought the winning lottery ticket for a dollar. LOL!
Hodl
Graham has joined the ranks of “you will own nothing and be happy.” While he as an asset holder himself continues to buy more.
Does he? I thought he bought his rentals like 10 years ago
He’s not saying it’s a good thing. He’s just saying the current conditions mean you will end up with more money renting. And he’s right about that. It’s our job to support policies that can change that.
He isn’t saying it’s not smart to own assets….He’s saying your residence isn’t a good asset to own right now.
@@SilverStateFan so many of these dumb comments, they dont understand graham nor economic data, cant teach them
He’s not saying “don’t own assets”. He’s saying “don’t own real estate”. Real estate is not the only asset class. There’s stocks, bonds, gold, bitcoin, etc.
When someone teaches it’s a bad idea to buy a home when they themselves own their own home, clearly has no idea what it’s like having multiple rental inspections a year and the threat of being homeless. I thank God I bought my own home and don’t have the threat that my friends are facing 30-60 other people trying to get the next rental & yes my loan repayments are now less than their rent. 😊
Literally. I will happily buy real estate and rent it out while at the same time renting myself if that’s what I feel like doing. But only renting my whole life without having a backup where I can go in case some landlord wants to double the rent or randomly kick you out? Absolutely reckless advice that can only come from someone who already has major properties.
Yeah this rich landlord is brain dead with this take. He clearly is out of touch with reality if he wants us to “own nothing and be happy”.
Where are you at that you’re having “rental inspections”? I’m in north DFW and have never heard of that.
17min of financial data and u brokie think u know better lmaooooo
Breaking News: Rich landlord doesn’t think you should buy your own home
Yeah this guys take is so brain dead. Yeah let me just wait another ten years for a market crash all the while I’m paying $2000 a month to live in a place I’ll never own.
I’m just going to buy a house as soon as I can, at any means necessary because you only live once. It must be nice to have a shitload of properties and just treat houses like Monopoly.
he showed 17minutes of financial data and this is ur conclusion, shows why you are broke. renting is cheaper
@michaelmich00and you would know? So you definitely not broke and you rent right? Throwing your money away. Paying someone who owns where you stay while they are rich. Right that makes a lot of sense.
@@TheAlexavina You can invest the difference in money saved from renting? Are mortgage interest costs (which are over 90% front loaded in the beginning of the loan so you’re not really paying into your own equity for awhile), property taxes, yearly maintenance costs, and others not considered throwing money away? You certainly never see that money again or get a return on it.
@@joshfenech496nice you noticed all the cons about a owning a home. You do understand owning a home isn’t a short term thing right? It’s meant you keep forever or until you’ve built enough equity so you can sell and essentially get back every dime you spent on your own home unlike rentals. No matter what you put into it, it’s never yours and it’s all money gone to waste. What’s worse is your not considering landlords can raise their prices every year so the difference you talk about is diminishing every year while prices of homes or interest rates will go up & your stuck realizing dam should have bought sooner than later. Without a doubt you need to constantly be trying to secure a home asap because it definitely benefits more long term, but as a smart individual you need to buy something that works for you financially. If an idiot buys something they can’t afford then their property won’t last and they will lose it but the moment you can afford it REGARDLESS if it’s overpriced or interest rates are too high you still should get it. It’s better to wait for interest rates to drop while owning a home than to wait while not owning anything. If things get worse like interest rates sky rocket person owning the home locked in at a decent interest is better off then person not owning and never buying due to interest being at 8, 9, or 10, if interest rates drop person owning the home can refinance while person without a home needs to hope the prices aren’t crazy inflated due to rates being so low. So yes buying sooner than later is always by far a wiser choice you just need to find a deal that works for you financially.
The BIGGEST hidden cost of owning your own home is tax increases.
Renters also pay property taxes. Landlords push the cost of insurance, maintenance, property taxes, etc. on to the tenant. No free lunch it’s not a charity. So as long as you live in a home regardless of whether or not you own it YOU WILL PAY PROPERTY TAXES.
Graham is preaching the whole “you’ll own nothing and be happy”
Agree 😂
Exactly! Corporations have been buying our properties like crazy raising the price of rent and Grahm wants us to believe that we’d be better off renting than buying a house. This is exactly what corporations want us to believe so that we fall into the trap of being stuck paying rent for the rest of our lives.
Don’t listen to this.. Buying your own shelter should be your top Priority